JustSayin.net

Yeah, about Rich Rodriguez, head coach of the Univerty of Michigan football team...

Facts first.  Michigan is a Big 10 school.  Michigan has traditionally been a "We are bigger than you and will run over you" school, with the occasional "Oh no, we're now behind and need to throw, how do we do that?" program.  That type of system requires a certain group of players to work.

Now facts about Rich-Rod.  He runs a spread offense.  The spread offense doesn't run over anybody.  They slice through and go around defenses.  It requires smaller, faster players and is based on passing.

College students/athletes are typically in football programs for 4-5 years.

So Michigan boosters, here is the $64,000 question.  Did you think Rich-Rod could win, considering he was using his system on players recruited for a completely different system?

When you invest in completely rebuilding your football program, you let the dude completely rebuild your football program.  It will take at least 4 years, then you can re-evaluate.  Things have to get worse before they get better sometimes.

Why does Horatio Caine always wear black?  I mean, he's on CSI: Miami for crying out loud.  In the summer months it's routinely near 100 degrees with a heat index of about 1200.  And this guy's strutting around in his black suit, dark shirt, and spouting off witty lines like "That's ... what we're gonna find out".  It really irks my Croc's (sp?).  

Here's my 10 things:

1. Speaking of Miami, when did the Dolphins get fun to watch.  These aren't ole' noodle-arm Pennington's dolphins anymore.  Chad Henne has a gun and the wildcat is here to stay.  You never know what's going to happen with that offense.  They're back, and a QB that gives them the 10+ yard pass, the Wildcat is even more potent.
2. Have the bad teams ever been so bad?  The Rams (112), Raiders (79), Chiefs (54), Redskins (9), Browns (66), Lions (59), and Bills (39) may not win another game, unless they play each other, the parenthesis indicate how much they've been outscored by in 4-5 games.  
3. The Cleveland/Buffalo game this weekend might have been the worst professional football game ever played.  It was 3-3 going into the 57th minute of the game.  The winning QB was 2-17 for 23 yards.  Anyone who paid to watch that game should be given their money back and it should be stricken from the record books.  Is there a precedent for that?
4. On that same subject, Terrell Owens is about 2 taco's away from taking a dump on Trent Edwards and the rest of his team.  Was there anyone who thought T.O. on an annually bad team, in a place where weather forces you to run the ball late in the season was a good fit?  I guess someone did since he's there, but the meltdown is iminent.
5. Welcome back Donovan McNabb.  In his first game back from the rib injury, he threw for 264, 3 TD's, and had a perfect passer rating.  The Eagles are here to stay and are
   right behind the G-Men.
6. Kyle Orton still has not thrown an interception.  The difference between him and Jay Cutler this year is 1 loss.  Cutler directly caused that loss by throwing 4 picks against the Packers in his
    debut.  Advantage Broncos thus far.
7. The Ravens have had 2 let downs in a row.  I still like them to make a Super Bowl run, but my confidence is not as high as it was.
8. One of the Ravens' losses was to the 'lookin' like 2005 again' Bengals.  Who knew they could finally play defense and Carson Palmer would bounce back this strong from his knee injury.  The AFC North is going to be one tight race the rest of the way, but the Bengals are one fluke Brandon Stokley play away from being 5-0.
9. The Cowboys confuse me.  I have no idea what to expect with this team.  If they ended 11-5 I wouldn't be surprised and likewise if they went 5-11.  It's all about Romo and the defense.  Can T.O. make that much of a difference?
10. By the way, MLB is in the middle of their playoffs right now and all I can think about is week 6.

Can you believe we are already 1/4 of the way through the NFL season?  As Kelly said in the girl next door, "always leave 'em wantin' more".  That's why the NFL is the best, because it follows quotes from a D grade porn-producer in an obscure film.  

Baseball has been going since April, with games every day and most teams out of it by June.  Basketball is the longest, meaningless season.  Why have a 6 month regular season when half the teams make the playoffs anyway?  Hockey, well it's hockey.

The NFL is king, and as far as sports go, this is the best time of the year.  So in between pain killers for my recently dislocated shoulder and my wife yelling at me for typing too lout at midnight, I'm going to give 10 thoughts on the NFL thus far.

1. If I had to pick between the Broncos and Niners, I'm going Niners.  Easier division, better defense, less fluke-play wins.  The Broncos are 2 plays away from being 2-2.  The Niners will win the NFC West this year, and Mike Singletary wins coach of the year.
2. Brett Favre isn't playing great, the Minnesota offensive line is great, and if you give any good QB 5 seconds to throw, they will find someone open.  That was the difference in the Packer game for sure, and that's why Adrian Peterson runs all over the place (that and he's fast, strong, quick, and explosive).
3. The Redskins are one of the 6 worst teams in the league, with the Rams, Bucs, Chiefs, Raiders, and Browns.  Yeah I said it.  Jim Zorn's coaching career will last as long as Tony Dungy, Mike Shanahan, Bill Cowher, Mike Holmgren and Marty Schottenheimer decide to say retired.  IF they come back and IF they can put up with Dan Snyder, they'll be coaching at FedEx Field the next season.
4. Mark Sanchez could be great.  He was put in a great situation this season.  He can trust his defense, doesn't have to do too much, and make good safe decisions.  We may see another rookie QB winning some playoff games.
5. My Super Bowl right now puts the Ravens against the Giants.  The Giants clearly have fixed their WR issues and the Ravens have found an offense.  Flacco is on pace to be a star in this league.  
6. Think of the top QB's in college football and think of their college careers (Brady - Michigan, P.Manning - Tennessee, Brees - Purdue, Romo - Eastern Illinois, McNabb - Syracuse - Roethlisberger - Miami of Ohio, Flacco - Delaware, Cutler - Vanderbilt).  Notice anything?  With the exception of Peyton and Tennessee, there are no NCAA powerhouses in there.  Maybe these guys who play for Division 1 powerhouses, with better athletes than any of their opponents, aren't as good as they look.  If I was an NFL GM and looking for a QB, I would look for a guy who elevated a lesser program to national prominence.  Diversity makes a good QB.  You don't want your first diversity to be at the pro level.
7. Pittsburgh got lucky last year.  Yeah it sounds bad.  The way they won every game last year was very similar.  Get a small lead, play conservative and be in the game at the end.  Hopefully a gamewinning drive in the last 2 minutes will help them win.  Well that's great, but it's risky too.  Letting teams hang around all 4 quarters is very dangerous.  They need to close opponents out or they'll be watching the Ravens in January.
8. The Patriots are getting better every week.  Brady is shaking the rust off, they are getting over the loss of Josh McDaniels, but they beat the Ravens last week, and will roll through November and December.
9. Mike Vick's return was the most overrated signing in the offseason.  He plays 10 plays a game on a good day.  He should have gone to the UFL to get the rust off and prove he could still play, then come back next year and sign a massive contract.
10. The two western divisions are awful.  Raiders, Chiefs, Seahawks, and Rams are bringing the rest of the league down.

That's it for now.  Talk to you next week.

Last year I did my Bold Predictions which didn't turn out too well.  Yes, I predicted the Lions would win the NFC North.  They didn't even win a game.  That said, I'm not discouraged.  In fact, I'm encouraged to make better picks this year.  I realize most of these guesses will be wrong, and I'm ok with that.  But one will be right.  I guarantee it.

Let's do this:

Matt Cassell will lose his job by week 9 this season.  Hello Tyler Thigpen.  Go check out 'Thiggy's' numbers towards the end of last year.  Ridiculous.  Add Todd Haley's spread offense to that team and some QB is going to be a star.

Matt Ryan will get stuck in a sophomore slump.  People were so enamored with the Falcons winning last year, they put Matt Ryan up on a pedestal he may not have deserved.  He managed the game well, handed the ball to Michael Turner, and let his defense win games for them.  That won't be good enough this year.  Expectations are high, and he won't meet them.

Mark Sanchez will win Rookie of the Year.  I just like what I've seen from him so far.  He makes good decisions, good throws, and has the arm.

The New York Giants will lead the league in dropped passes.  As a Giants fan, I thought the guys they had were good enough, but the preseason has not supported that philosophy.

The Minnesota Vikings will not make the playoffs.  People forget the reason the Jets missed the playoffs last year.  It was Favre's 10 interceptions in their last 6 games.  How is a gunslinger prone to turnovers going to be the missing piece to a championship?

DeAngelo Williams will lead the league in rushing.  Jonathan Stewart has achilles problems, and this team loves to run.  He's a beast.

The Chargers will clinch the AFC West in week 11.  Broncos, Chiefs, and Raiders.  Enough said.

Andre Johnson will lead the league in receptions.  He's ridiculous and Matt Shaub will stay healthy this year.  That's a nasty combination.

Tom Cable, Josh McDaniels, Jim Zorn, Wade Phillips, and Brad Childress will not have the same employment status this time next year.

Ochocinco will come back to life this year, on the field that is.  Last year he fell victim to a bad case of "Ryan-Fitzpatrick-is-my-quarterback-itis".  Before that, he never had fewer than 1200 yards an d 7 TD's.

Lendale White will outperform Chris Johnson in the Tennessee backfield.  Joke all you want about the Patron, but he looks strong and fast this preseason.

The San Francisco 49ers will challenge the Seahawks for the NFC West title.  

The Arizona will fall victim to the Super Bowl Curse, and Kurt Warner will not duplicate last year's numbers.  

I'll spend over $100 in my fantasy auction draft on Tom Brady and Randy Moss.  Wait that already happened ... Go Patriots!  Ick, I hate saying that.

The Chargers will beat the Patriots in the AFC Championship game.

The Chargers will beat the Green Bay Packers in the Super Bowl.

The Sandlot Fantasy Football League has just concluded it's draft weekend, and it rocked.  We started with the traditional (at least now I'm proposing traditional) pre-draft party.  All league owners were invited as well as friends, family, and any other bum off the street.  We had it at the commishes house.  There was chicken, mac, chicken mac, burgers, chicken, brownies, and maybe even some adult beverages.  Good party.

Then came the draft.  Some owners crashed on the couches as the party died down while others headed home for the night.  I woke up early the next morning to get some last minute research in and headed to the draft site.

My strategy going in was much different this year than in years past.  Traditionally it was to pay as much as you need to for elite running backs, get a value QB, and draft enough wide receivers so that you can either play the matchups or some emerge as reliable starters.  Tight ends, kickers, and defenses aren't worth all that much so pick them up when it seems right.

With so many teams now moving to the committee system in their backfields, running back is deeper than ever, while there are definitely about 10 receivers you want.  After those 10, they're all very similar.

Also, the winner of this particular league has always had a top tier quarterback.  With 6 points per TD, a great, reliable QB can really give you an advantage over the competition.  My bargain QB hunting over the years has never worked out and always has me scrambling for the next Tyler Thigpen come playoff time.

My keepers were Steve Smith (Car) for $28, and Ahmad Bradshaw for $4.  Here's how my team ended up:

• QB - Tom Brady, $55
• RB - Willie Parker, $23
• RB - Julius Jones $3
• WR - Randy Moss, $47
• WR - Steve Smith, $28
• TE - Owen Daniels, $3
• Flex - Ahmad Bradshaw, $4
• K - Kris Brown, $1
• D/ST - Chargers, $2
• B - Donald Brown, $13
• B - Edgerrin James, $5
• B - Malcom Kelly, $1
• B - Domenik Hixon, $1
• B - Nate Washington, $1
• B - David Garrard, $3
• B - Miles Austin, $3

I went into the draft knowing I was drafting Tom Brady.  I'm just plain sick of hunting for a reliable arm on my team throughout the year.  And yes, I'm hoping his shoulder is fine.  As a matter of fact, my season depends on it.  I was happy I locked up David Garrard though for $3.  He was a top 10 QB last year, under the radar.

Running back is an issue.  I think Willie Parker has at least one more good year in him, and I'm not worried about Rashard Mendenhall taking carries.  I think my hatred of Joseph Addai, after costing me last season, came through in my Donald Brown bidding, but I'm glad I got him.  My goal was to get some good, young backs that could be starters next year and long term keepers.  I think I got those with Bradshaw and Brown.  Also, I got the whole Seattle backfield because I think someone there has a decent season.

At wide receiver, I have Steve Smith and Randy Moss.  Enough said.

Owen Daniels at tight end for $3 is a steal.  He had a ton of targets last year and I just need those to turn into TD's for a breakout season.

No comment on kicker.

I think the Chargers defense has a bounceback year, with Shawn Merriman back on the line.  He should bring some sacks, as well as help in run support.

My season clearly depends on Brady and Moss.  If they stay healthy, and put up half the production they put up 2 years ago, I'll be in good shape.  Go Patriots ... ugh I hate saying that.