JustSayin.net

Can you believe we are already 1/4 of the way through the NFL season?  As Kelly said in the girl next door, "always leave 'em wantin' more".  That's why the NFL is the best, because it follows quotes from a D grade porn-producer in an obscure film.  

Baseball has been going since April, with games every day and most teams out of it by June.  Basketball is the longest, meaningless season.  Why have a 6 month regular season when half the teams make the playoffs anyway?  Hockey, well it's hockey.

The NFL is king, and as far as sports go, this is the best time of the year.  So in between pain killers for my recently dislocated shoulder and my wife yelling at me for typing too lout at midnight, I'm going to give 10 thoughts on the NFL thus far.

1. If I had to pick between the Broncos and Niners, I'm going Niners.  Easier division, better defense, less fluke-play wins.  The Broncos are 2 plays away from being 2-2.  The Niners will win the NFC West this year, and Mike Singletary wins coach of the year.
2. Brett Favre isn't playing great, the Minnesota offensive line is great, and if you give any good QB 5 seconds to throw, they will find someone open.  That was the difference in the Packer game for sure, and that's why Adrian Peterson runs all over the place (that and he's fast, strong, quick, and explosive).
3. The Redskins are one of the 6 worst teams in the league, with the Rams, Bucs, Chiefs, Raiders, and Browns.  Yeah I said it.  Jim Zorn's coaching career will last as long as Tony Dungy, Mike Shanahan, Bill Cowher, Mike Holmgren and Marty Schottenheimer decide to say retired.  IF they come back and IF they can put up with Dan Snyder, they'll be coaching at FedEx Field the next season.
4. Mark Sanchez could be great.  He was put in a great situation this season.  He can trust his defense, doesn't have to do too much, and make good safe decisions.  We may see another rookie QB winning some playoff games.
5. My Super Bowl right now puts the Ravens against the Giants.  The Giants clearly have fixed their WR issues and the Ravens have found an offense.  Flacco is on pace to be a star in this league.  
6. Think of the top QB's in college football and think of their college careers (Brady - Michigan, P.Manning - Tennessee, Brees - Purdue, Romo - Eastern Illinois, McNabb - Syracuse - Roethlisberger - Miami of Ohio, Flacco - Delaware, Cutler - Vanderbilt).  Notice anything?  With the exception of Peyton and Tennessee, there are no NCAA powerhouses in there.  Maybe these guys who play for Division 1 powerhouses, with better athletes than any of their opponents, aren't as good as they look.  If I was an NFL GM and looking for a QB, I would look for a guy who elevated a lesser program to national prominence.  Diversity makes a good QB.  You don't want your first diversity to be at the pro level.
7. Pittsburgh got lucky last year.  Yeah it sounds bad.  The way they won every game last year was very similar.  Get a small lead, play conservative and be in the game at the end.  Hopefully a gamewinning drive in the last 2 minutes will help them win.  Well that's great, but it's risky too.  Letting teams hang around all 4 quarters is very dangerous.  They need to close opponents out or they'll be watching the Ravens in January.
8. The Patriots are getting better every week.  Brady is shaking the rust off, they are getting over the loss of Josh McDaniels, but they beat the Ravens last week, and will roll through November and December.
9. Mike Vick's return was the most overrated signing in the offseason.  He plays 10 plays a game on a good day.  He should have gone to the UFL to get the rust off and prove he could still play, then come back next year and sign a massive contract.
10. The two western divisions are awful.  Raiders, Chiefs, Seahawks, and Rams are bringing the rest of the league down.

That's it for now.  Talk to you next week.

The Sandlot Fantasy Football League has just concluded it's draft weekend, and it rocked.  We started with the traditional (at least now I'm proposing traditional) pre-draft party.  All league owners were invited as well as friends, family, and any other bum off the street.  We had it at the commishes house.  There was chicken, mac, chicken mac, burgers, chicken, brownies, and maybe even some adult beverages.  Good party.

Then came the draft.  Some owners crashed on the couches as the party died down while others headed home for the night.  I woke up early the next morning to get some last minute research in and headed to the draft site.

My strategy going in was much different this year than in years past.  Traditionally it was to pay as much as you need to for elite running backs, get a value QB, and draft enough wide receivers so that you can either play the matchups or some emerge as reliable starters.  Tight ends, kickers, and defenses aren't worth all that much so pick them up when it seems right.

With so many teams now moving to the committee system in their backfields, running back is deeper than ever, while there are definitely about 10 receivers you want.  After those 10, they're all very similar.

Also, the winner of this particular league has always had a top tier quarterback.  With 6 points per TD, a great, reliable QB can really give you an advantage over the competition.  My bargain QB hunting over the years has never worked out and always has me scrambling for the next Tyler Thigpen come playoff time.

My keepers were Steve Smith (Car) for $28, and Ahmad Bradshaw for $4.  Here's how my team ended up:

• QB - Tom Brady, $55
• RB - Willie Parker, $23
• RB - Julius Jones $3
• WR - Randy Moss, $47
• WR - Steve Smith, $28
• TE - Owen Daniels, $3
• Flex - Ahmad Bradshaw, $4
• K - Kris Brown, $1
• D/ST - Chargers, $2
• B - Donald Brown, $13
• B - Edgerrin James, $5
• B - Malcom Kelly, $1
• B - Domenik Hixon, $1
• B - Nate Washington, $1
• B - David Garrard, $3
• B - Miles Austin, $3

I went into the draft knowing I was drafting Tom Brady.  I'm just plain sick of hunting for a reliable arm on my team throughout the year.  And yes, I'm hoping his shoulder is fine.  As a matter of fact, my season depends on it.  I was happy I locked up David Garrard though for $3.  He was a top 10 QB last year, under the radar.

Running back is an issue.  I think Willie Parker has at least one more good year in him, and I'm not worried about Rashard Mendenhall taking carries.  I think my hatred of Joseph Addai, after costing me last season, came through in my Donald Brown bidding, but I'm glad I got him.  My goal was to get some good, young backs that could be starters next year and long term keepers.  I think I got those with Bradshaw and Brown.  Also, I got the whole Seattle backfield because I think someone there has a decent season.

At wide receiver, I have Steve Smith and Randy Moss.  Enough said.

Owen Daniels at tight end for $3 is a steal.  He had a ton of targets last year and I just need those to turn into TD's for a breakout season.

No comment on kicker.

I think the Chargers defense has a bounceback year, with Shawn Merriman back on the line.  He should bring some sacks, as well as help in run support.

My season clearly depends on Brady and Moss.  If they stay healthy, and put up half the production they put up 2 years ago, I'll be in good shape.  Go Patriots ... ugh I hate saying that.

• Player A - 3440 yards, 16 TD, 11 Int, 87.7 rating.
• Player B - 3245 yards, 13 TD, 6 Int, 84.3 rating.

Not sure how many of these I'll do, but I'm going to post a list of overrated players going into this fantasy football season. Above is a comparison of two players, 1 is the overrated guy, while the other is a guy who everyone thinks stinks.

Guesses?

Player A is Matt Ryan. Yeah, he only threw 16 TD's last year. How do you think Michael Turner got all those carries?

Player B is Jason Campbell, going undrafted in most leagues (except around DC, and the Campbell family fantasy league).

Would you draft Jason Campbell in front of Donovan McNabb, Matt Shaub, Jay Cutler, Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer, and Matt Hasselbeck? If you answered yes, you're officially invited to my league.

I realize Ryan had a great rookie year and has a promising future, but having a great year as a rookie, doesn't mean having a good fantasy season. In fact, he finished 20th among QB's last year, behind David Garrard, Jason Campbell, and Chad Pennington. And now, believe it or not there's an owner in my league keeping him for more money than Aaron Rodgers, at $15.

Be careful with Matt Ryan. Just because Chris Berman likes him, doesn't mean your fantasy team will.

I play in a 12 team keeper auction fantasy football league.  This will be the 6th year of the Sandlot Fantasy Football League and our draft is this Sunday.

Rosters are: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, RB/WR/TE, K, D/ST, 7 bench spots.

Our draft budget is $200 and we get a $100 free agent budget after that.

It's one of the best fantasy leagues I've ever played in for many reasons, the main one being the owners.  A league is only as good as the people in it.  We had some VERY casual owners through the first 2-3 seasons and had to weed them out, but have since put together 12 great teams.  

Who am I keeping?  Steve Smith (Car) for $28 and Ahmad Bradshaw for $4.  

I'm typically pretty competitive, usually fighting for a playoff spot near the end of the year.  I start strong after a good draft, and falter during the year with my trades and free agent pickups.  

This year is particularly interesting for me, since it is the first year I'm not the league commish.  After a 5 year tenure, I stepped down and passed the torch to my co-commish, who is doing a great job so far.  Since there will be no "commishing" by me, I'm really looking forward to just being an owner and whooping up on 'dem fools.

During the course of the year, I'll be posting complaints and dumb strategy moves so I can reflect on it at the end of the year.  

Let's do this.