JustSayin.net

My first deal.

Let me first say that I love a league where a post to the trading block brings 5 trades with it.  I'm in 3 other leagues who think the trading block is a local cheese shop.

I tried to hold off on trading until at least a month into the season.  This way you can wait and see what you actually have.  Turns out I have power and need pitching.  I tried to eye some buy-low, slow-start candidates and came across Josh Beckett.  I'm normally not a Beckett fan, but feel like he's been extremely unlucky so far.

Batters' BABIP against him is .370 right now.  League average is around .300.  His strikeout to walk ratio is 3.5:1, which is really good.  Combine that with the fact that 44% of runners that get on base against him score and you've got one unlucky pitcher (30% is the norm).  

I gave up Adam Dunn for him.  I'm tops in the league in power.  Donne Baseballers and DejaBrew are 1 & 2 with no one else really close right now.  So I feel like I can spare the HR's and hopefully get a reliable starter.

Thanks to Ross and Lew for being so responsive on the trade front.  I hope it vaults you all the way up to 2nd place, right behind "The Brew".  

It's working!!!

It's really working.

So as is customary for this blog, I'm doing well in DCRoto and thus, I'm writing about it.  Here are the standings.

Rank	Team	Batting	Pitching	Total	Dif	Behind
1	The Derek Corbett Experience	67.0	60.5	127.5	24.0	0.0
2	Donnie Baseballers	64.5	55.5	120.0	-11.0	7.5
3	DejaBrew All Over Again	70.5	26.5	97.0	25.0	30.5
3	Berkshire Lumber Company	64.0	33.0	97.0	9.0	30.5
5	Rebuilding Cleveland	47.0	49.5	96.5	2.5	31.0
6	Raleigh Rednecks Redux	37.0	55.0	92.0	-6.0	35.5
7	Lesbian Spank Inferno	36.0	55.5	91.5	-4.5	36.0
8	Lite Brigade	33.0	49.5	82.5	-3.5	45.0
8	Boats N Hoes	33.5	49.0	82.5	5.5	45.0
10	Purple Submarine	55.5	23.5	79.0	6.0	48.5
11	Scrubbies	25.0	53.0	78.0	-3.0	49.5
12	BigPoppaLip	39.0	38.0	77.0	5.0	50.5
13	Logan's Monsters	32.5	39.0	71.5	-4.5	56.0
14	Tools of Ignorance	23.5	37.0	60.5	-13.0	67.0
15	Naked Britney Statue Giving Birth on Bear Skin Rug	14.5	40.5	55.0	-3.5	72.5
16	Closer by Committee	37.5	15.0	52.5	-28.0	75.0
Standings Updated as of: 5/12/10 4:47 AM EST

My pitching still stinks on ice, but my batting average is coming around.  Not only that, but Kerry Wood and Huston Street are throwing again and should be accumulating saves very soon.  I'll be last in wins and K's for the year, but could be top 5 in every other category.

As far as the other teams go, "The Derek Corbett Experience" is crushing right now, mainly anchored by a ridiculous pitching staff.  Jered Weaver, Justin Verlander, James Shields, David Price, and A.J. Burnett.  Not bad.  The offense is anchored by a strong outfield.  Jason Bay, Garrett Jones, Angel Pagan, Scott Podsednik.  

Evidence points to the contrary, but I don't see this offense holding up.  Hence the trading block update recently where DC offers pitching for offense.  He's putting up a good fight in his first year, but watch out for the late season trades Mr. Corbett, especially ones involving Edwin Jackson.  My prediction is top 5 for Mr. Corbett, but I would be surprised if he finished in the money.

In a word.  Not good.

Craptastic.

Epic fail.

Yeah, it's a lot of words, but I need to get the point across.  America, if you see Billy Wagner, please politely tell him to get some friggin' saves.  Here are the standings as of right now.

Rank	Team	Batting	Pitching	Total	Dif	Behind
1	Donnie Baseballers	69.5	61.5	131.0	131.0	0.0
2	The Derek Corbett Experience	53.0	50.5	103.5	103.5	27.5
3	Raleigh Rednecks Redux	44.5	53.5	98.0	98.0	33.0
4	Lesbian Spank Inferno	45.0	51.0	96.0	96.0	35.0
5	Rebuilding Cleveland	43.5	50.5	94.0	94.0	37.0
6	Berkshire Lumber Company	59.0	29.0	88.0	88.0	43.0
7	Lite Brigade	33.0	53.0	86.0	86.0	45.0
8	Scrubbies	33.5	47.5	81.0	81.0	50.0
9	Closer by Committee	57.0	23.5	80.5	80.5	50.5
10	Boats N Hoes	22.0	55.0	77.0	77.0	54.0
11	Logan's Monsters	36.5	39.5	76.0	76.0	55.0
12	Tools of Ignorance	34.0	39.5	73.5	73.5	57.5
13	Purple Submarine	44.0	29.0	73.0	73.0	58.0
14	DejaBrew All Over Again	50.0	22.0	72.0	72.0	59.0
14	BigPoppaLip	38.5	33.5	72.0	72.0	59.0
16	Naked Britney Statue Giving Birth on Bear Skin Rug	17.0	41.5	58.5	58.5	72.5
Standings Updated as of: 5/1/10 4:38 AM EST

I'm DejaBrew.  Good hitting horrible pitching.  Another word I would use to describe our league is lumpy.  We have the bottom lump, Naked Brittany Long Named Team, acting very lonely down there.  I'm still interested in Nyjer Morgan if you're still offering :).

Then there's the 70's lump.  No it's not that thing old people get at the top of their back from too much time in a Denny's booth.  It's a volatile lump.  Today I moved to the top of it, but tomorrow I'll probably fall back down.

Then we have the 80's and the 90's.  Seems like each decade is separated by a few points.  Until you get to Donnie Baseballers, who are up 30 points on everyone.  It's an ugly race for 2nd place right now.  Could the Ballers set a record for DCRoto scoring?  We'll have to wait and see.  

In the meantime, stay on the lookout for Wagner.

One of the beauties of DCRoto is the League Trading Block.  If you post something up there, you can bet you'll be contacted within 24 hours by another owner with an offer.  It's clockwork, like a Philly fan doing something subhuman at a sporting event.

I was last in the league in stolen bases.  I was first in the league in home runs.  So as I tend to do, I started panicking because Pedroia, Andrus, Cruz, Choo, and Milledge weren't running.  I posted a "power for speed" message on the block.

"Naked Brittany Statue Giving Birth on a Bearskin Rug" contacted me shortly thereafter.  They were offering Nyjer Morgan for someone like Adam Dunn, Nelson Cruz, Andre Ethier, or Josh Willingham.  I initially offered Willingham because, well you have to try right?  Plus I've always been a Willingham guy.  He's the hammer to my nail (gross).  I kind of always see him as a .280, 25 HR, 85 RBI's, 5 SB guy.  But apparently no one else does.

So he countered with Adam Dunn.  That would be a classic power for speed trade.  Morgan gets average and steals.  Dun gets HR's and RBI's.  They are about even on runs usually.  

The next night, the Texas Rangers stole 9 bases on Tim Wakefield and Victor Martinez.  Andrus had 3 and Cruz had 3.  Not that I'm in 1st place or anything now, but that just kind of reminded me that it's still early.  I drafted this team for a reason.  I didn't draft them for the first 3 weeks of the year.  There are going to be stretches where my guys don't steal, hit HR's, or just plain hit.  Why should the first 3 weeks be more valuable than any other three?

Andrus has stolen bases in the majority of games since then and Cruz has too.  I'm hoping this was the kick start they needed.  

Let's hope so.

Below is a preseason analysis sent out by Yier Shi, owner of Scrubbies in DCRoto.  It's a great article and I thought I should post it here.  This year I'll try to involve more teams than mine on the blog.  We'll see how it goes.

Jason did this for a basketball league we’re in and I really enjoyed it.  So I thought I try my hand in doing a draft

analysis and grade.  Now I understand me doing a draft
analysis is like seeing Steve Lavin, Herm Edwards, Bobby
Valentine or Mike Milbury on TV (basically, a bunch of
losers commentating). But hey, it’s the entertainment factor
and the outrage this will inevitably generate that matter,
right?  And since I don’t have a blog, I’ll just post this
as a LONG email for everyone’s reading pleasures this
weekend.

Berkshire – B+
Overall solid draft with a strategy of no closers and
balanced hitting.  Fate likely depends on the health of
Reyes and Webb

Best Pick:  Reyes for $16….fairly high upside for not a lot
of financial commitment
Worst Pick:  Baker for $15….at a draft where top starters
were going for only about $20, Baker’s stats are uninspiring


Big Poppa – A-
Very balanced team that’s competitive in all categories.

Best Pick:   Strasburg for $5….very little risk for high
upside, see a trend with this analysis?
Worst Pick:  Ichiro at $23…the exact opposite…a significant
commitment just for average and speed, which was bountiful
at the draft

Boats – C
A valiant attempt at filling all categories, but ended up
mediocre in all of them.  That outfield is very pedestrian.

Best Pick:  Beckham at $14…a nice value for a guy that will
have a lot of position flexibility
Worst Pick:  Bell for $13….not because it’s a bad price, but
having one closer in this league just sticks out like a sore
thumb and who know how long he’ll close for

Closer by Committee – C+
Just could not stay away from the stars and scrubs strategy.
Also succumbed to the temptation of the young and sexy.

Best Pick:  Pujols at $46…as a rule, Pujols is automatically
your best pick, doesn’t matter how much you paid for him
(even if it’s a lot!)
Worst Pick:  Chapman at $8….if MLB was Hollywood, Chapman
would be Natasha Henstridge – sexy as hell but check out
this list of filmography -
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natasha_Henstridge


DejaBrew – B-
Lots of hitting values and lots of Dr.’s office visits for
the bullpen.  Speculating on starters in the draft is a
strategy I’m very familiar with…and that’s not good news for
Mike.

Best Pick:  Hudson for $5….if he’s as good as he’s been this
spring, the guy is a steal at $5
Worst Pick:  Bailey at $14…..although not a great monetary
risk, was still shocked to see him on this roster with Wood,
Street, Bedard, Howell and Hanrahan already in the
infirmary.

Ballers – B-
Other than Hanley and maybe Weeks, the team lacks
multi-category hitters.  How that plays out to the grind of
a long summer remains to be seen.    Another team with a
pedestrian outfield could haunt as the season moves on.

Best Pick:  Hanley at $41…the Pujols rule applies here.
Worst Pick:  Weeks earning his $16 is arguably the most
important aspect for Ballers to win and that alone makes him
the worst pick.

Lesbians – C
Average age of the Lesbians roster is significantly younger
than everyone else’s, which translates to mega potential or
mega busts.  Tom insists it’s not luck, but I still say it’s
a percentage game.  If you flirt with enough “hot” girls at
the bar after 10 drinks, you’ll eventually wake up with some
ugly chicks in the morning once the beer goggles have worn
off.

Best Pick:  Lots to choose from as they can all be “hot”.
Gonzalez at $15 can reap rewards twice to three times
better.
Worst Pick:  Felipe Lopez at $19 or $5…not because of the
pick, but because a supposed fantasy expert is able to spent
$19 over budget and not realize it at the draft.

Lite Brigade – B
A modified stars and scrubs strategy, the Brigade ended up
with a fairly balanced team, albeit a little lite on speed
and saves.  Banking on rebounds from a lot of veterans,
we’ll see how many of them actually turn it around.

Best Pick:   Chipper at $6…he’s old, he’s brittle, but when
he plays, he still hits
Worst Pick:  Wood at $6….he’s young, he’s strong, but when
he plays, he still hasn’t hit

Logan’s Monsters – A
Revisiting a winning strategy is always a smart thing to do.
Jason’s draft almost mirrored last year.  Once again, it’ll
all ride on his ability to turn around the woeful pitching
from the draft.

Best Pick:  any of his outfielder not named McLouth…now we
know why a lot of teams couldn’t field an outfield -  Logan
has hogged a bunch.
Worst Pick:  McLouth at $19…does emergence of Jason Heyward
makes McLouth an afterthought in the Brave’s lineup?

Purple Submarines – A-
Loaded up on multi-category guys.  Solid balance throughout
the lineup and in pitching.  Will need a few veterans to
come through health wise and ability wise.

Best Pick:  Rios at $13…candidate #1 for a big turnaround.
And even when’s off, he usually delivers on one category
(speed or power) to warrant the investment
Worst Pick:  Harden at $10….a little high for an injury
risk, switching to the AL, pitching in Arlington

Raleigh – B
Kept a low profile and didn’t figure in any bidding wars at
the draft.  As a result, nothing sexy about a roster that is
filled with solid hitters.

Best Pick:  Cain at $13 presented a good saving over other
top pitchers in his tier
Worst Pick:  $15 for Tejada…not quite sure I buy into the
resurgence talk

Rebuilding Cleveland – A-
Our draft host put together a formidable lineup with a ton
of power and some speed potential.  Pitching staff has risky
propositions, but upside is evident.

Best Pick:  BJ Upton at $21 is a great value
Worst Pick:  Hafner at $2…team name should be changed to
“Rebuild Pronk”

Scrubbies – C+
Outfield and secondary starting pitching needs work.  Spent
way too much collecting a cast of mediocre relievers.  Did
come away with some top players in each of position.

Best Pick:  Granderson at $20….i don’t care that he’s
overrated, $20 is not much to pay for a guys with 30/20
numbers
Worst Pick:  Everth Cabrera at $12…what was I thinking
chasing after speed there for the next Emilio Bonafacio

Brittany – A-
Despite the long team name, the co-owners were short on
draft day banter.  Put together a very “by the book” team
with some star hitters, anchored by 2 star pitchers and a
bunch of solid, yet unspectacular role players.  Overall, a
strong showing.

Best Pick:  Latos at $4.  You’re not getting many wins, but
Latos will put up solid stats across the board for $4
Worst pick:  No complaints anywhere, but am sure they’re
praying Zobrist at $22 is close to the same Ben that showed
up last year.

Corbett – D+
Leaving money on the table is a rookie mistake at DC Roto.
It may not be a fatal blow, but with how competitive
everyone is, it’s a significant disadvantage to start the
year.

Best Pick:  Braun at $37.  The last beneficiary of the
Pujols Rule.
Worst Pick:  Marcum at $15.  I like Marcum, but it
symbolized what went wrong with the draft for Corbett

Tools – C
Redefined the meaning of  “mediocre” outfield.  Solid
pitching staff, but not quite sure they’ll finish in the top
4-5 in any categories.

Best Pick:    Hard to pick as there were no great values.
Loney at $13 can be interesting if he decides this year to
make a leap in power
Worst Pick:  Again, hard to pick as there were no great
reaches, Prado for $18 seem like a lot to pay for mediocre
middle infield stats.


Overall, everyone's team is flawed as we have a deep 16 team
league.  Good luck to all this year! For my own team's sake,
I just hope I'm as bad a analyst as i am a fantasy baseball
player.